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Hansen: Cut CO2 10 Percent in 10 Years

Professor Bruce E. Johansen

Jim Hansen and colleagues’ evaluation of global warming is leaving us less wiggle-room than ever before. The latest, contained in a scientific article that Hansen and several coauthors are now preparing, says that the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide level not only must stop growing from its present 385 parts per million, but must be cut at least 10 per cent in 10 years (to below 350 p.p.m.).

Failing such a reduction, we have placed enough warming “in the pipeline” during years to come to provoke not only uncomfortably warmer temperatures, but also significantly eroding Arctic and Antarctic ice, major sea-level rises, intensifying droughts and deluges, and animal extinctions on the land and in the oceans (including much of the world’s coral reefs). The oceans may acidify to the point that anything in a shell will be in peril. Of the 2 degrees C. required to provoke unstoppable feedbacks, about half is now “in the pipeline,” according to Hansen’s calculations.

“Paleoclimate evidence and ongoing global changes imply that today’s CO2, about 385 p.p,m., is already too high to maintain the climate to which humanity, wildlife, and the rest of the biosphere are adapted,” they write.

In a world where climate diplomacy dwaddles and China adds a new coal-fired power plant on an average of every two weeks, carbon-dioxide levels have been rising at a faster rate than any time since detailed records have been kept. As I wrote this word arrived that carbon-dioxide emissions from U.S. power plants rose almost 3 percent in 2007 over 2006, the largest increase in a decade.

The nature of thermal inertia and feedbacks makes this a sneaky, slow-motion crisis that many people will not feel (nor appreciate) until greenhouse-gas levels are too high to avoid major damage to the ecosystem.

Full-scale Mobilization

Hansen calls upon World War II as an example of the full-scale mobilization required to avoid a climatic crackup, if, according to Hansen and colleagues, “humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed.” Construction of coalfired power plants must be stopped until carbon-capture technology is available, and everyone must scour their lives for ways to conserve electricity. Efficiency standards for vehicles must be raised dramatically, and the very structure of our cities fundamentally changed to reduce the need to travel long distances on a daily basis. Air travel, which has become a major source of greenhouse-gas emissions, will need to be curtailed sharply. Non-fossil fuels (wind, solar, and others) will require development on a crisis basis. The peoples of the world will have to realize that modern machine warfare, with its huge carbon footprint, is a threat to survival of the environment. Agriculture and forestry practices will change to minimize production of carbon dioxide. All of these actions, and more, will require world-wide scope, and quickly.

Icemelt to Come at the Poles

“Present-day observations of Greenland and Antarctica show increasing surface melt, loss of buttressing ice shelves, accelerating ice streams, and increasing overall mass loss,” Hansen says. He adds that existing models of icesheet disintegration lack complete analysis of the physics of melting ice, including, in some cases, the fact that sea-level changes of several meters per century occur in the paleoclimate record, in response to influences that are slower and weaker than the present-day human- made forcings. “It seems likely,” he writes “that large ice sheet response will occur within centuries, if human-made forcings continue to increase. Once ice sheet disintegration is underway, decadal changes [sea-level change within a period of 10 years] may be substantial.”

The amount of warming that we feel now is being restrained by the enormous thermal inertia of the oceans that cover two-thirds of Earth’s surface. Once that warming is realized, however, it will endure for centuries, even if human consumption of fossil fuels stops completely. No additional forcing is required, according to Hansen, to raise global temperature to that of the Pliocene, 2 to 3 million years ago, “a degree of warming that would surely yield dangerous climate impacts.” Equilibrium sea level rise for today’s 385 p.p.m. CO2 is “at least” several meters, judging from paleoclimate history, Hansen and colleagues state.

“Alpine glaciers are in nearglobal retreat,” Hansen and colleagues write.

“After a flush of fresh water, glacier loss foretells long summers of frequently dry rivers, including rivers originating in the Himalayas, Andes and Rocky Mountains that now supply water to hundreds of millions of people. Present glacier retreat, and warming in the pipeline, indicate that 385 p.p,m. CO2 is already a threat.” To relieve these and other stresses, the carbon-dioxide level must be brought down to 300 to 350 p.p.m. then stabilized.

Spreading Deserts

As carbon-dioxide levels rise, atmospheric circulation patterns change. Spin the globe and you’ll notice that most of the world’s deserts lie between 20 and 40 degrees north and south latitude. This is because air usually descends in these areas. As the air warms, these dry areas expand northward and southward, creating more deserts. One such area is the U.S. Southwest; this dry area expands from time to time over Nebraska. “Data reveal a 4-degree latitudinal shift already,” Hansen et al. write.” [This is] larger than model predictions, yielding increased aridity in southern United States, the Mediterranean region, Australia and parts of Africa.”

Although nothing of this kind exists now, the Hansen paper raises the possibility of a massive research effort “strong research and development support and industrial- scale pilot projects sustained over decades” to find technology that could reduce airborne carbon dioxide on a massive level. The cost? They estimate $10 trillion — enough to make the Iraq war look cheap.

“Present policies, with continued construction of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture, suggest that decision-makers do not appreciate the gravity of the situation. We must begin to move now toward the era beyond fossil fuels,” the paper concludes. “Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions, for just another decade, practically eliminates the possibility of near-term return of atmospheric composition beneath the tipping level for catastrophic effects. The stakes, for all life on the planet, surpass those of any previous crisis. The greatest danger is continued ignorance and denial, which could make tragic consequences unavoidable.”

Source: Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Mark Pagani, Maureen Raymo, Dana Royer, and James C. Zachos. “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Draft, March 18, 2008.

Frederick W. Kayser Professor of Communication at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, Johansen is the author of the three-volume “Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century” (Praeger, 2006).